[SMM Weekly Review] Weak demand, falling costs, chromium market in the doldrums

On June 13, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content). In Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged WoW. This week, ferrochrome prices remained relatively stable. The continuous sluggish downstream demand affected the confidence of market participants in the ferrochrome market, with many adopting a bearish outlook for the future. During the week, mainstream stainless steel mills cancelled price limits, causing stainless steel prices to fall to a near five-year low. Although price limits were subsequently restored, the market's downward trend remained unchanged, and procurement of ferrochrome remained cautious. Given weak demand, ferrochrome producers and traders held a pessimistic outlook, with an increased willingness to offload inventory, leading to an increase in low-priced supplies on the market. In addition, chrome ore prices fell further. When converted based on spot raw materials, the production cost of ferrochrome continued to decline. However, considering that the current prices of chrome ore raw materials held by most producers were at a relatively high level, costs still provided some support for ferrochrome prices. Producer quotes remained stable, with limited price reductions. During the week, ferrochrome prices stabilized within the 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content) range, unchanged WoW. It is expected that the ferrochrome market will remain generally stable with slight fall in the short term.

On the raw material side, chrome ore prices fell again during the week. Buyer demand was limited, mostly for just-in-time procurement, and overall market transaction activity remained low. On June 13, 2025, in terms of spot cargo, the price of 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 57-58 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean powder was 57-58 yuan/mtu; 46-48% chrome concentrate powder was 56-57 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish lump ore was 62-63 yuan/mtu; and 46-48% Turkish fine ore was 65-67 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the futures market, no offers were made by major overseas mines this week. Chrome ore prices of South African and Zimbabwean origins fell by 1 yuan/mtu during the week, but sales remained difficult. Chrome ore inventory at ports this week was 2.7972 million mt, down 5.53% WoW. Although the volume of chrome ore arriving at ports and entering warehouses pulled back, procurement by ferrochrome producers remained cautious. Chrome ore inventory remained at a relatively high level. The downward trend in the off-season for downstream stainless steel consumption is difficult to reverse, and with a new round of steel tenders approaching, the market is mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the chrome ore market will maintain a generally stable with slight fall trend in the short term.